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亚博最新版在线登录:伊朗,“带病”复工!



发布日期:2021-03-03 14:02:01 发布者:Admin5  点击率:

The new crown epidemic has swept the world, and Iran is one of the worst-hit countries. In the middle of the outbreak in China, Iran also began a large-scale outbreak. The ruthless virus even took away many important figures and celebrities of Iranian political, religious and military personnel. Today, when the epidemic in China is gradually controlled and the epicenter of the epidemic has shifted to Europe and America, Iran still exists today. The 30,000 confirmed cases are still not optimistic.

新的王冠流行已席卷全球,伊朗是受灾最严重的国家之一。在中国爆发的中间,伊朗也开始了大规模爆发。残酷的病毒甚至夺走了伊朗政治,宗教和军事人员的许多重要人物和名人。如今,当中国的流行病逐渐受到控制并且流行病的重心转移到欧美时,伊朗仍然存在。 30,000例确诊病例仍然不容乐观。

But Iran's already weak economy can no longer stand it. On April 4, the number of new confirmed cases in Iran in a single day showed a continuous decline for 6 days, and the government anxiously announced at the "Anti-epidemic Conference" held on the 5th-"low-risk business and economic activities in other provinces except the capital" Activities" will resume work on April 11.

但是伊朗已经疲软的经济已经受不了。 4月4日,伊朗新确诊病例数连续6天呈下降趋势,伊朗政府在第五届“抗流行病会议”上急切宣布“低风险商业和经济活动”。除首都以外的其他省份的“活动”将于4月11日恢复工作。

And this decision immediately caused great concern among the country’s health departments and local officials. Faced with the still huge number of confirmed cases, where is the confidence of the Rouhani government in resuming work?

这一决定立即引起该国卫生部门和地方官员的极大关注。面对仍待确认的大量案件,鲁哈尼政府对恢复工作的信心在哪里?

From March 30 to April 7, the number of new cases in a single day in Iran decreased from 3,186 to 2,089, indicating that the anti-epidemic work led by the Rouhani government has indeed made some progress. However, the Iranian epidemic situation is still very severe, and theoretically, it has not reached the conditions for resuming work and production.

从3月30日到4月7日,伊朗一天中的新病例从3186例减少到2089例,这表明鲁哈尼政府领导的抗流行病工作确实取得了一些进展。但是,伊朗的疫情仍然非常严峻,从理论上讲,还没有达到恢复工作和生产的条件。

It seems to have survived the peak of new diagnoses, but economically Iran may have reached its limit ▼

它似乎在新诊断的顶峰中幸存下来,但在经济上伊朗可能已达到极限▼

Iran’s population is unevenly distributed, dense in the northwest and sparsely in the southeast, with the densest population near the capital Tehran. Since March 11, there have been more than 1,000 new cases nationwide every day, and Tehran accounts for a large proportion of them. In such a severe situation, 63% of Tehran citizens still do not have enough protective equipment such as masks and disinfectants. The people in the capital still have no protection against the virus. It is conceivable that there is a shortage of medical supplies in other parts of the country.

伊朗的人口分布不均,西北部人口密集,东南部人口稀少,首都德黑兰附近人口密度最高。自3月11日以来,每天在全国范围内有1000多个新病例,德黑兰占了很大比例。在这种严峻形势下,仍有63%的德黑兰公民没有足够的防护设备,例如口罩和消毒剂。首都人民仍然没有防病毒的保护措施。可以想象,该国其他地区医疗用品短缺。

In early March, the epidemic situation in Iran has shown an outbreak, especially in the capital Tehran and surrounding large cities (diagnosed in various parts of Iran, general situation on March 10) (reference: wikipedia-2020 coronavirus pandemic in Iran)▼

3月初,伊朗的疫情呈爆发状态,尤其是在首都德黑兰和周边大城市(在伊朗各地诊断出该病,3月10日总体情况)(参考:Wikipedia-2020伊朗冠状病毒大流行)▼

In fact, the local people did not strictly abide by the personal protection requirements set by the government, and even more than 30% of the people did not approve of quarantine measures.

实际上,当地人民没有严格遵守政府规定的人身保护要求,甚至超过30%的人民不同意隔离措施。

Most people underestimated the seriousness of the matter (3/10 picture from Mohammad Ahangar / Wikipedia)▼

大多数人低估了事件的严重性(来自Mohammad Ahangar /维基百科的3/10图片)▼

This is closely related to the government's wrong positioning and propaganda of the virus at the beginning of the outbreak in Iran. The Shiite Ulima (religious scholar), who has a lofty right to speak in Iranian society, relies on religious networks to indoctrinate followers with the idea that “the virus is not terrible”. Supreme Leader Khamenei also vigorously declared that “the virus is a terrorist confrontation by the United States. Part of it is to divert public panic and serve the strategic demands of confronting the United States.

这与伊朗爆发伊始政府对病毒的错误定位和宣传密切相关。什叶派乌利马(宗教学者)在伊朗社会享有崇高的发言权,他依靠宗教网络以“病毒不可怕”的思想灌输信徒。最高领导人哈梅内伊还大力宣称:“该病毒是美国的恐怖对峙。部分目的是转移公众的恐慌,并满足与美国对抗的战略要求。

The situation of the old opponent is not much better (Washington, DC/USA-3/17) (picture from Nicole Glass Photography / Shutterstock.com)▼

老对手的处境并没有好得多(华盛顿特区,美国/华盛顿-3/17)(图片摘自妮可·格拉斯摄影/ Shutterstock.com)▼

It is conceivable that in the absence of early publicity, the current reduction in new cases is mainly the result of the government's administrative measures (including the use of military power), rather than the result of the people's voluntary participation in protection. Under the conditions of strong control, there are still new cases. Once the control is released and the free movement of people is allowed, it is self-evident.

可以想象,在没有及早公布的情况下,目前新案件的减少主要亚博登录手机是政府的行政措施(包括使用军事权力)的结果,而不是人民自愿参与保护的结果。在强有力的控制下,仍然有新的情况发生。一旦释放控件并允许人员自由移动,这是不言而喻的。

The military force can only strengthen the temporary epidemic prevention and control, but it mainly depends on the public's awareness of epidemic prevention (picture from Behnam Tofighi / Wikipedia)▼

军队只能加强临时的防疫工作,但主要取决于公众的防疫意识(图片来自Behnam Tofighi / Wikipedia)▼

Externally, the continuous increase of US sanctions has also increased the difficulty of Iran's epidemic prevention work. For a long time, the United States has imposed extensive restrictions on Iran’s banking system and imposed a strict embargo on its oil exports, which in itself severely hit Iran’s economy. Under the epidemic, these sanctions have greatly restricted Iran’s ability to raise funds and purchase basic medical supplies from abroad.

从外部看,美国制裁的不断增加也增加了伊朗防疫工作的难度。长期以来,美国对伊朗的银行系统施加了广泛的限制,并对石油出口实施了严格的禁运,这本身就严重打击了伊朗的经济。在这种流行病之下,这些制裁极大地限制了伊朗筹集资金和从国外购买基本医疗用品的能力。

Fortunately, Mahan Airlines has not stopped to receive foreign aid materials (picture from Mohammad Mehdi Dorani / wikipedia)▼

幸运的是,马汉航空并未停止接收外国援助材料(图片来自Mohammad Mehdi Dorani /维基百科)▼

In the past two months, the Trump administration has also reduced the number of licenses for certain agencies to export medical products to Iran. And just recently, the Rouhani government urgently applied for a US$5 billion anti-epidemic loan from the International Monetary Fund, which was also made difficult by the United States. At the same time, the United States made a statement that it wanted to blackmail Iran on the condition of helping Iran fight the epidemic to force it to yield, and the Iranian government stated that it "will never bow its head."

在过去的两个月中,特朗普政府还减少了某些机构向伊朗出口医疗产品的许可证数量。就在最近,鲁哈尼政府紧急向国际货币基金组织申请了50亿美元的抗流行病贷款,这也使美国感到困难。同时,美国发表声明说,要勒索伊朗,条件是要帮助伊朗抗击该流行病,迫使其屈服。伊朗政府表示,它将“永远不会屈服”。

Actively learn effective anti-epidemic experience (picture from: Wikipedia)▼

积极学习有效的抗流行病经验(图片来自:维基百科)▼

Iran’s economy is based on crude oil and is strongly dependent on resources. Its industrial strength is quite average, and its level of refining is not high among the oil countries in the Middle East, not to mention everything from light industry such as sewing masks to precision manufacturing such as ventilators. industry. And because its medical equipment is heavily dependent on imports, the medical system is easily penetrated when faced with a large-capacity impact, and the epidemic will be even more out of control by then.

伊朗的经济以原油为基础,并高度依赖资源。它的工业实力相当中等,在中东的石油国家中其提炼水平不高,更不用说从轻工业(如缝制口罩)到精密制造(如通风机)的一切了。行业。而且,由于其医疗设备严重依赖进口,因此医疗系统在面对大容量冲击时很容易渗透,到那时疫情将更加无法控制。

Tehran's ICU is still hard to find (picture from Amir Mardani / Shutterstock.com)▼

德黑兰的ICU仍然很难找到(图片来自Amir Mardani / Shutterstock.com)▼

Knowing these practical difficulties, why did the Rouhani government resolutely order the resumption of work and production?

认识到这些实际困难,鲁哈尼政府为何坚决下令恢复工作和生产?

Many people believe that the Iranian government decided to resume work and production because of the intuitive decrease in new cases. But more substantively, Iran was forced to carry out economic recovery due to internal and external pressure.

许多人认为,由于新案件的直观减少,伊朗政府决定恢复工作和生产。但实际上,由于内外部压力,伊朗被迫进行经济复苏。

Compared to most countries with severe epidemics in the world, Iran and its ruling government are facing much greater economic pressure. Iran has been subject to the US economic blockade for a long time. Before the outbreak, the currency rial had plummeted. Since the outbreak, Iranian prices have continued to rise, and the unemployment rate has also continued to increase. In addition to the recent collapse in international oil prices due to the entanglement between OPEC and Russia, Iran, as an oil producer, also suffered heavy losses.

与世界上大多数流行病严重的国家相比,伊朗及其执政政府面临着更大的经济压力。伊朗长期以来一直受到美国的经济封锁。疫情爆发前,货币里亚尔暴跌。自爆发以来,伊朗的价格持续上涨,失业率也持续上升。除了最近由于欧佩克与俄罗斯纠缠而导致国际油价暴跌外,作为石油生产国的伊朗也遭受了重创。

In the days when it was impossible to drive out, oil prices fell (Las Vegas, 4/1) (picture from chara_stagram / Shutterstock.com)▼

在无法开车的日子里,油价下跌(拉斯维加斯,4/1)(图片来自chara_stagram / Shutterstock.com)▼

In this context, the United States, Saudi Arabia and other old opponents have stepped up their efforts to incite dissatisfaction among the people in Iran, trying to weaken the legitimacy of the Iranian government from the people's livelihood. From this point of view, more than 50 Iranian economists sent a letter to Rouhani expressing that “probably riots in low-income areas” are very predictable. Therefore, no matter how well the epidemic is controlled, Iran needs economic income to achieve regime stability.

在这种情况下,美国,沙特阿拉伯和其他老对手加紧努力,激起伊朗人民的不满,试图从民生中削弱伊朗政府的合法性。从这一观点出发,超过50名伊朗经济学家致信鲁哈尼(Rouhani),称“很可能在低收入地区发生骚乱”。因此,无论疫情控制得如何,伊朗都需要经济收入来实现政权的稳定。

The closure of commercial establishments has caused many people to lose their income (picture from MojNews / Wikipedia)▼

商业机构的关闭导致许多人失去收入(图片来自MojNews / Wikipedia)▼

In addition to consolidating the legitimacy of the government of the Islamic Republic in power, Iran also has its own huge network of overseas interests that needs to be maintained through domestic economic recovery.

伊朗除了巩固执政的伊斯兰共和国政府的合法性外,还拥有自己庞大的海外利益网络,需要通过国内经济复苏来维持这一利益。

For a long time, Iran has established a Middle East Shiite interest network including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Bashar regime in Syria. This has become an important support for it to show its regional influence, interfere in regional hotspot issues, and counter the anti-Iran camp. The resources needed to maintain this network are also enormous: It is reported that Iran provides Hezbollah with up to 900 million US dollars in financial aid each year, and the entire region invests even more.

长期以来,伊朗建立了中东什叶派利益网络,包括黎巴嫩的真主党和叙利亚的巴沙尔政权。这已成为其展示其地区影响力,干预地区热点问题以及对抗反伊朗阵营的重要支持。维持该网络所需的资源也非常庞大:据报道,伊朗每年向真主党提供高达9亿美元的财政援助,整个地区的投资甚至更多。

On the one hand, Iran has to provide a large amount of aid to its allies, and on the other hand, it has long suffered economic sanctions from the United States and the recent plunge in oil prices has undoubtedly made Iran worse ▼

一方面,伊朗必须为其盟国提供大量援助,另一方面,它长期以来一直遭受美国的经济制裁,而最近的油价下跌无疑使伊朗变得更糟▼

If the country cannot resume work and increase income as soon as possible, Iran can only be forced to adopt a policy of regional contraction, and its influence in the region will naturally be greatly affected, destroying the achievements of military diplomacy since the political revolution in the 1970s. This is also a burden that the current Rouhani government cannot afford.

如果该国不能尽快恢复工作并增加收入,则只能迫使伊朗采取区域收缩政策,其在该地区的影响自然会受到很大影响,破坏了自2000年政治革命以来的军事外交成就。 1970年代。这也是现任鲁哈尼政府负担不起的负担。

The huge internal and external pressure has made the Iranian government seriously consider the possibility of forced resumption of work. The social structure and cultural outlook of Iran actually support a certain degree of resumption of work.

巨大的内部和外部压力使伊朗政府认真考虑了强制恢复工作的可能性。伊朗的社会结构和文化观实际上支持一定程度的恢复工作。

With the increase in detection capacity and treatment experience, Iran’s anti-epidemic work is gradually effective (picture from Mohammad Mohsenifar / Wikipedia)▼

随着侦查能力和治疗经验的增加,伊朗的抗流行病工作逐渐有效(图片来自Mohammad Mohsenifar / Wikipedia)▼

From the perspective of the social demographic age structure, young people under the age of 30 account for 55% of the total population of Iran, and the deaths of the new coronavirus are mainly the elderly and people with underlying diseases. This is also the case in Iran, although the prevalence rate is high. The main reason for the fatality rate is not as high as imagined. Many young people have mild symptoms even if they are sick, and they will not have much adverse impact on the resumption of work and production. They may even develop immunity to the virus after they are cured (provided that the virus is not significantly mutated). Even if problems occur in the resumption of work, it is controllable. of.

从社会人口年龄结构的角度来看,30岁以下的年轻人占伊朗总人口的55%,新冠状病毒的死亡主要是老年人和有基础疾病的人。伊朗也是如此,尽管患病率很高。病死率不如想象中的高。许多年轻人即使生病也有轻度症状,不会对恢复工作和生产造成很大不利影响。治愈后,它们甚至可能对病毒产生免疫力(前提是该病毒没有明显突变)。即使在恢复工作中出现问题,也可以控制。的。

But the loss is also huge. The cemetery area in Iran has been expanded again and again (picture from Behzad Alipour/ Wikipedia)▼

但是损失也很大。伊朗的公墓地区一次又一次地扩大(图片来自Behzad Alipour / Wikipedia)▼

Judging from the social atmosphere in Iran, most people are optimistic about virus prevention and control. For decades, the Iranian people have long been accustomed to the shortage of medical supplies, the strengthening of US sanctions, and the continuous economic decline, and they have their own philosophy of life in the cruel social reality.

从伊朗的社会气氛来看,大多数人对病毒的预防和控制持乐观态度。数十年来,伊朗人民早已习惯于医疗用品短缺,美国制裁加强和经济持续下滑的情况,在残酷的社会现实中有自己的人生观。

The village is still a village (Tehran, April 2) (picture from ‌Mohammad Mohsenifar / Wikipedia)▼

该村庄仍然是一个村庄(4月2日,德黑兰)(图片来自‌Mohammad Mohsenifar / Wikipedia)▼

Religious beliefs played an obvious placebo effect at this time. Even if many Iranian Muslims unfortunately became COVID-19 patients, they thought it was "Allah's arrangement", and there is not much to complain about.

宗教信仰在此时起到了明显的安慰剂作用。即使不幸的是,许多伊朗穆斯林成为COVID-19病人,他们也认为这是“安拉的安排”,没有什么可抱怨的。

The quarantine personnel check the body temperature at the junction of Tehran and Qom (picture from: http://fna.ir/dfiset)▼

检疫人员检查德黑兰与库姆交界处的体温(图片来自:http://fna.ir/dfiset)▼

Considering various factors, although resuming work is a risky move, Iran does not have much room for choice and waiting, and it is also prepared for adverse consequences. It is worth a try.

考虑到各种因素,尽管恢复工作是冒险的举动,但伊朗没有太多选择余地和等待的余地,而且伊朗也准备承受不利后果。值得一试。

It is worth noting that although Iran initiated the resumption of work when the epidemic is still serious, this resumption of work is not a full-scale liberalization of recklessness, but rather reserved adjustment space and optimized design.

值得注意的是,尽管伊朗在疫情仍很严重亚博最新版在线登录时就开始了恢复工作,但这种恢复工作并不是鲁ck的全面自由化,而是保留了调整空间和优化的设计。

The regulations on the resumption of low-risk activities outside Tehran on the 11th mean that as long as industries that do not engage in collective activities can be restored, such as clothing, catering, transportation, etc., the restoration of these industries can guarantee the basic lives of the people. The continued closure of schools, gyms, swimming pools, religious sites, etc., does not actually have much impact on basic production and life.

《关于在德黑兰境外恢复低风险活动的规定》(第11条)意味着,只要能够恢复不从事集体活动的行业,例如服装,饮食,交通等,这些行业的亚博登录手机恢复就可以保证人民的基本生活。学校,体育馆,游泳池,宗教场所等的继续关闭实际上对基本生产和生活没有太大影响。

The park still has to be sealed (picture from Mohammad Hossein Velayati / Wikipedia)▼

公园仍然必须封闭(图片来自Mohammad Hossein Velayati / Wikipedia)▼

By the 18th, if there are no problems with the resumption of work in other areas, Tehran's "low-risk activities" will gradually begin. The Rouhani government will also continue to coordinate the military, health, social management and other agencies to jointly participate in prevention and control, and stipulate that the Baschi militias under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards monitor the implementation of specific measures.

到18日,如果其他地区恢复工作没有问题,德黑兰的“低风险活动”将逐渐开始。鲁哈尼政府还将继续协调军事,卫生,社会管理和其他机构,共同参与预防和控制,并规定伊斯兰革命卫队下属的巴斯基民兵将监督具体措施的执行。

In fact, as early as the beginning of March, the government had planned measures to resume work. Iran’s strategy is to carry out strict prevention and control for one month from March to contain the development of the epidemic. Regardless of the effect, it will resume economic development. Because the country cannot withstand the economic regression, and one month of strict prevention and control has played a role in enhancing the self-protection awareness of the people, which is good for maintaining a certain level of health vigilance after resuming work.

实际上,早在3月初,政府就已计划采取措施恢复工作。伊朗的战略是从3月开始实施为期一个月的严格预防和控制措施,以遏制这种流行病的发展。无论其影响如何,它都将恢复经济发展。由于该国无法承受经济衰退的影响,一个月的严格预防和控制对提高人民的自我保护意识起到了作用,这有利于恢复工作后保持一定的健康警惕性。

We can’t purify ourselves in places of faith. Humans should disinfect them obediently (picture from Mehdi Bakhshi / Wikipedia)▼

我们无法在信仰的地方净化自己。人类应该听从消毒(从Mehdi Bakhshi / Wikipedia拍摄)▼

In terms of diplomacy, since the reality of increased US sanctions cannot be changed, the Iranian government has strengthened economic cooperation and mutual medical assistance with China, Russia and other countries.

在外交方面,由于无法改变美国日益增加的制裁的现实,伊朗政府已经加强了与中国,俄罗斯和其他国家的经济合作和医疗互助。

As early as February 29, members of the Chinese Red Cross volunteer expert team went to Tehran for medical assistance. The Iranian government is also very willing to learn from China's experience in epidemic prevention for propaganda, testing, isolation and treatment.

早在2月29日,中国红十字会志愿者专家小组的成员就前往德黑兰寻求医疗援助。伊朗政府也非常愿意借鉴中国在防疫方面的宣传,检测,隔离和治疗经验。

These measures have even played a role in enhancing China's soft power influence in Iraq. For example, when the new crown epidemic broke out in China, some people in Iran were convinced that "the new crown was caused by the Chinese people eating bats", and they felt disgusted with the Chinese people for not paying attention to hygiene. Since the Chinese medical aid team arrived in Iran, the relatively developed health technology brought there quickly changed this impression.

这些措施甚至在增强中国在伊拉克的软实力影响方面发挥了作用。例如,当新的王冠流行病在中国爆发时,伊朗的一些人确信“新的王冠是中国人吃蝙蝠造成的”,他们对中国人不注意卫生感到厌恶。自从中国医疗救援队抵达伊朗以来,相对发达的医疗技术带到那里迅速改变了这种印象。

After the outbreak of the Iranian epidemic, the Chinese government, local enterprises and spontaneous individuals provided material assistance and donations to Iran (picture from Mohammad Hossein Velayati /Wikipedia)▼

伊朗疫情爆发后,中国政府,当地企业和自发个人向伊朗提供了物质援助和捐赠(图片来自穆罕默德·侯赛因·维拉亚蒂/维基百科)▼

In fact, the dual pressure of the epidemic and sanctions is not all negative to the Iranian government.

实际上,流行病和制裁的双重压力并不完全对伊朗政府不利。

Due to the double pressure, many foreign capitals in Iran have withdrawn and imports have dropped significantly, but it is a spontaneous wave of import substitution for domestic companies. The Iranian business community, which is inherently not highly extroverted, now has unprecedented support for the Rouhani government.

由于双重压力,伊朗的许多外国资本都撤出了,进口量大大减少了,但这是自发的进口替代国内公司的浪潮。伊朗企业界本来就不外向,但现在对鲁哈尼政府提供了空前的支持。

And the government's strengthening of social control and active prevention and control of the epidemic have indeed acted, causing many people who are very dissatisfied with the current regime to change their attitudes, and the country's internal unity has been improved. This is not necessarily good for Iran’s integration into the world order, but it is good for temporarily maintaining regime stability.

而且,政府加强社会控制和积极预防和控制流行病的确的确起到了作用,使许多对当前政权不满的人改变了态度,国家的内部团结得到了改善。这不一定有利于伊朗融入世界秩序,但有利于暂时维持政权稳定。

This runs counter to the demands of the United States and Saudi Arabia to subvert the current Iranian government.

这与美国和沙特阿拉伯颠覆现任伊朗政府的要求背道而驰。

In fact, since the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty, the Persians have seen enough of the world. The turmoil caused by the new crown virus may be just one of them is not special.

实际上,自从推翻巴列维王朝以来,波斯人已经看到了足够多的世界。由新的冠状病毒引起的动荡可能只是其中之一,并不特殊。

references:

参考资料:

1. Jing An: "Can't fight it anymore, the countries with the worst epidemic in the Middle East will resume work", Jiemian News, April 6, 2020.

1.静安:“再也不能与之抗争,中东疫情最严重的国家将恢复工作”,《捷绵新闻》,2020年4月6日。

2. https://www.sabi-sabi.com/2020/04/06/iran-says-virus-infections-present-gradual-decline/

2. HTTPS://呜呜呜.萨比-萨比.com/2020/04/06/Iran-says-virus-infections-present-gradual-decline/

3. https://middleeastaffairs.net/2020/04/06/iran-will-never-ask-u-s-for-coronavirus-help-official/

3. HTTPS://middle east affairs.net/2020/04/06/Iran-will-never-ask-U-是-佛如-corona virus-help-official/

4. https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2020/04/06/a-new-china-connection-for-austria-is-now-on-its-way/

4. HTTPS://呜呜呜.rail freight.com/belt and road/2020/04/06/啊-new-China-connection-佛如-Austria-is-now-on-ITS-蛙泳/

 
 
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